RBM cuts 2026 growth forecast to 2.8 percent

The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has lowered its 2026 economic growth projection for Malawi to 2.8 percent from 3.8 percent. The Ministry of Finance made the 3.8 percent projection. This is contained in the central bank's National Accounts 2017–2026 report. The revised projection suggests that although the economy is expected to improve this year, the recovery will be slower than the government anticipated. According to the report, Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2026, up from 2.5 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2024. The growth could be the strongest since 2021, when the local economy expanded by 4.6 percent. In recent years, Malawi's economy has experienced weak growth due to the Covid pandemic and other shocks, including cyclones, droughts, foreign exchange shortages and high inflation. Economist Marvin Banda said the local economy's continued dependence on agriculture had, in recent years, exposed the country's vulnerability to climate-change-related shocks. He said the country should invest in enhancing production for meaningful economic growth. "Growth is not built on optimism; it is built on production, and Malawi's productive sectors are still struggling," Banda said. In an earlier interview, Finance Minister Joseph Mwanamvekha said the government's projection was premised on realistic assumptions. He said growth could, however, be affected by anticipated El Niño weather and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. RBM statistics show that Malawi's economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2019 before slowing sharply to 0.8 percent in 2020 during the pandemic. Growth recovered to 4.6 percent in 2021 before falling to 0.9 percent in 2022. It later improved to 1.9 percent in 2023 but slowed again to 1.7 percent in 2024. This year, the central bank expects agriculture to remain the main driver of the economy as the sector is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026 after recording 1.3 percent growth in 2025. Mining and quarrying is expected to expand by 6.1 percent, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors this year. Construction is projected to grow by 4.2 percent while accommodation and food services are expected to increase by 5.0 percent. Financial and insurance activities are forecast to grow by 3.7 percent, with information and communication sectors projected to grow at 3.2 percent. Manufacturing is expected to grow by only 0.9 percent, indicating that industrial production remains subdued despite the sector's importance to the economy.

WIRE — The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has lowered its 2026 economic growth projection for Malawi to 2.8 percent from 3.8 percent. The Ministry of Finance made the 3.8 percent projection. This is contained in the central bank's National Accounts 2017–2026 report. The revised projection suggests that although the economy is expected to improve this year, the recovery will be slower than the government anticipated. According to the report, Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2026, up from 2.5 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2024. The growth could be the strongest since 2021, when the local economy expanded by 4.6 percent. In recent years, Malawi's economy has experienced weak growth due to the Covid pandemic and other shocks, including cyclones, droughts, foreign exchange shortages and high inflation. Economist Marvin Banda said the local economy's continued dependence on agriculture had, in recent years, exposed the country's vulnerability to climate-change-related shocks. He said the country should invest in enhancing production for meaningful economic growth. "Growth is not built on optimism; it is built on production, and Malawi's productive sectors are still struggling," Banda said. In an earlier interview, Finance Minister Joseph Mwanamvekha said the government's projection was premised on realistic assumptions. He said growth could, however, be affected by anticipated El Niño weather and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. RBM statistics show that Malawi's economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2019 before slowing sharply to 0.8 percent in 2020 during the pandemic. Growth recovered to 4.6 percent in 2021 before falling to 0.9 percent in 2022. It later improved to 1.9 percent in 2023 but slowed again to 1.7 percent in 2024. This year, the central bank expects agriculture to remain the main driver of the economy as the sector is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026 after recording 1.3 percent growth in 2025. Mining and quarrying is expected to expand by 6.1 percent, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors this year. Construction is projected to grow by 4.2 percent while accommodation and food services are expected to increase by 5.0 percent. Financial and insurance activities are forecast to grow by 3.7 percent, with information and communication sectors projected to grow at 3.2 percent. Manufacturing is expected to grow by only 0.9 percent, indicating that industrial production remains subdued despite the sector's importance to the economy.

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